in your opinion how many basis points will fet in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five i don't have a firm opinion about exactly how many， but i do think by the time we get to the end of twenty twenty five i wouldn't be surprised to see the federal funds right around four percent give or take so that would be about a hundred and fifty basis points over the next year and three months chairman pal indicated very clearly in his speech at jackson hole that the federal reserve had was not so worried about inflation anymore inflation expectations were anchored inflation rates were coming down so they were reasonably confident that inflation would get to their two target， but they were beginning to worry about the labor market the labor market which had been extremely tight a couple years ago when inflation was very high， a lot of vacancies rolled up to the people looking for jobs wages were going up rapidly prices were going up rapidly partly because those supply change disruptions etc， but partly because of the strong demand for labor and he was very clear that they increase in interest rates they had had from 2022 through 2020， three had cool demand the labor market was in much better balance even he said and i agree a little bit softer than it might have been in 2019 pre covid so they were much less concerned about inflation and much more concerned about the labor market weakening and they needed to change direction and reduce that target in order to reduce the restrictiveness of monetary policy and support the labor market he said that they would not welcome any further weakening in the labor market and with restricted policy that was a threat so clearly they're going to cut。
