2024国内民营投资为什么是负增长

我知道的一个数据现在就是，呃，从今年啊，国有资本的投资的比重，嗯，占到总投资比重的百分之六十。投资啊，因为国有企业投资 主要都是啊基础设施对就业的增长是不多的，特别从这个大学毕业生现在情况来看，就是二十多岁，是吧？就业情况非常困难。所以现在咱们鼓励民营企业投资呢，就希望能够在就业增长上能够发挥作用。

你知不知道我们国家的实体经济总负债是多少？大约三百四十五万亿。这么多的钱，这么多的负债， 和你有什么关系呢？和民营企业关系大，我们估算民营企业在其中的占比大概只有百分之六左右。 民企负债大多是银行贷款呀。可以这么说，在中国经济当中，民营企业贡献了百分之五十的税收，百分之六十的 gdp， 百分之七十的科技创新，百分之八十的就业和百分之九十的企业数量， 但是只获得了实体经济总负债百分之六的支持。 数据不会撒谎，发展也真的不容易。那么数据是怎么来的呢？按照国际惯例，一个国家的债务可以分为十几， 经济和金融两部分，其中实体经济是由居民加非金融企业加政府构成。那我们国家呢？是中央政府和地方政府两级政府啊。我们分析的数据来自于国家统计局、财政部 和国家金融与发展实验室的 cnbs。 截至二零二三年一季度，中国实体经济部门的总负债是三百四十五万亿，其中居民债务七十七点四六万亿，非金融企业债务两百零四点三六万亿，政府债务五十三万亿。而且在过去的二十年中， 非金融企业债和居民债务的杠杆率一直在上升。我们今天啊，重点说说非金融企业债务。非金融企业可以分为国有和民营企业，那么他们的占比又是什么样的呢？这里我们看了一份报告，二零二二年的十一月，财政部的资产管理师 发布过一份报告，这报告也是权威的呀，根据这个报告，二零二一年国有非金融企业的负债总额是一百九十七点九万亿。而前面的数据我们说了，到二零二三年的一季度，非金融企业部门的债务是两百零四点三六万亿， 只差了六点四六万。难道给民营企业的只有这点吗？不完全一定存在统计口径不一致的情况和时间上的这种滞后性的问题，但是误差不会太大。所以我们有理由猜测，这两百零四点三六万亿中的绝大部分 都给了国有企业，给民营企业的贷款大体不会超过百分之十，也就是二十万亿左右。这其中啊，还包括了房地产行业，恒大、碧桂园、万科、绿地、保利、万达 等等，我们测算了一下，大概是在十万亿左右，也就是说大体上另外十万亿才真正给到了除了房地产之外的民营企业、科技、商业、制造领域等等的主力军团。所以啊， 请珍惜中国的民营企业和民营企业家，他们在压力中前进，在困难中发展，真的不容易，值得钦佩。各位，对于民营企业的生存现状，你们怎么看？

for the past year we've been flooded with reports that china is collapsed days of explosive growth and technological advancement are now supposedly over and its complete collapse imminent， but a groundbreaking report was just released completely upends these predictions and reveals what will really happen to china and its economy in 2024， the reality is far more shocking and it's not what you expect so let's break down everything you need to know about china's economy in today's video enter economist doctor wade zenshan， the author of this groundbreaking report and one of the world's leading actual experts on china's economy he's the executive chairman of pag， one of the largest private investment firms in asia the million dollar question that doctor shanna dresses in his report is whether china can continue to grow and flourish as it has the report is overflowing with jaw dropping facts and statistics that will blow your mind so let's break them down china's economy has experienced severe challenges since 2022 especially in the housing sector legendary financial times economics commentator martin wolf showed that the housing sector which accounts for 11 percent of china's gdp has far underperformed other sectors of the economy which have more or less resumed their pre pandemic growth trajectory in fact china's real estate market has been a negative contributor to china's overall economic growth since 2022 and a big driver of the recent economic slowdown the biggest question now is whether china's housing slum will become so severe that it infects and drags down the whole economy with it and here is worth things get interesting in this report dr shan shows the crisis is currently cooling off the sector's negative contribution to gdp growth has narrowed from about four percent in 2022 to less than two percent in 2023， the truth is that china will still meet its five percent growth target for 2023 in fact the imf even revised his forecast up to five point four percent on november 8th， so you might be thinking how is china able to do this the secret lies with a concept known as policy space， which allows china to sustain its growth even in the face of many crisis in fact dr shann reveals that china likely has more policy space than any other major economy in the world， the policy space simply means how many options and nation has to withstand economic crisis is that threaten its prosperity and even its existence the reports following statistics will blow your mind first china is experiencing no inflation just let that sink in while many western countries have suffered from crippling inflation， which has noticeably affected our lives in wallets for many years now， china has completely avoided this plague on top of this china's interest rates are higher than in the us and much higher than in europe or japan also its cash reserve ratio， which is the percentage of deposits that commercial banks must park with the central bank is around 10.5 percent for large chinese banks that compares to a mere zero to one percent for western countries as a result china has considerable leoway in terms of monetary policy by either cutting its interest rates or its cashers of ratio， or if needed doing both at the same time， which no other major economy can but this is just the beginning the report reveals that china actually has a positive financial net worth whereas western countries such as the us uk， germany， france and italy are deeply in debt so often westermedia lectures us about how deeply in debt the chinese government is and how reckless and irresponsible this is to the rest of the world clearly this narrative is far from reality not to mention completely， hypocritical and the facts once again show that china is in the league of its own among major economies dr shan continues much ink has been spilled by the world's pundits about china's government debt in truth chinese central government debt represents only about 21 percent of gdp local government debt of course is what has been getting all the attention estimates for those obligations range only from 50 percent to 80 percent gdp including hidden liabilities if we take the highest debt to gdp ratio of 110 percent for china's overall government debt it still compares favorably with that of the us federal government which is about a hundred and forty percent of gdp and with japan's central government debt of about two hundred and sixty percent of gdp clearly china is covered in terms of its debts what's truly shocking here is that not even counted in this calculation of china's positive net worth is the nation's vast land and natural resources all of which are government owned as a result china's financial networth is likely under reported and the country has considerable room to expand in terms of fiscal policy， but this is just the beginning western pundits have sounded the alarm pointing to china's massive and now infamously indebted property developer the evergrand group china's current housing crisis was largely sparked by this and other big developers in the wake of new chinese regulations on these companies debit limits it's been called china's layman moment referring to the demise of the once revered american bank which triggered the 2008 financial crisis， but watch doctor shenn dismental these claims with cold hard facts about china system that these pundits simply aren't aware of the average loan to value ratio of mortgages in china's major cities is about forty percent which means that housing prices will have to fall more than half to produce negative equity for homeowners which simply means a person's house is worth less than the money they own on it this is not even remotely likely to happen when you buy a house the loan to value ratio indicates how much you pay up front 40 percent means that chinese people are paying on average a whopping 60 percent of their property price up front this is astonishing given that in the united states first time home buyers typically pay about six to seven percent up front make no mistake the housing prices in china's major cities are anything but cheap these days dr shan continues moreover chinese homeowners cannot simply walk away from their mortgages if the value of their home plummets as homeowners can in the united states in mainland， china， as in hong kong， australia and other jurisdictions mortgages are unlimited personal liabilities this is why during the 1997 asian financial crisis， there was plenty of negative equity in hong kong's housing sector， but not a single bank failure these are the kind of key insights that will shatter the western narrative that china's housing crisis will infect and collapse the rest of china's economy， but dr shan isn't finished yet just watch as he reveals the truth about china's financial system loans to property developers represent less than six percent of the loan book and the banking system and all of those loans are secured by collaterals chinese banks are well capitalized with an average capital adequacy ratio of more than 15 percent the capital adequacy ratio measures of being strengthened stability and indicates how big their buffer of capital is to cover potential losses 15 percent is comparable to westernations and far above the minimum requirements set by the third basil lacor， a framework developed in response to the 2008 global financial crisis dr shan continues with the surprising insight about china's non performing loans which in the us is known as sub prime lending or loans that borrowers are unable to pay back the average non performing loan ratio of chinese banks is about 1.6 percent yes npls have been rising in recent years， but banks are selling or riding them off quickly because the regulatory requirement in china for setting aside reserves to cover npls as about a hundred and fifty percent more than any other country i know of therefore it is just not worth it for chinese banks to hold on to mpls clearly china's banking system is far more robust and stable than the western media would have us to believe， but doctor shan doesn't simply claim everything is sunshine and roses in the chinese economy in fact he states china's real estate sector will face short term perhaps even long term pain however， the key insight from dr shan once again is that this pain is confined to one sector and won't drag down the rest of the financial system and china's economy with it this is the crucial point that the west simply doesn't understand in fact while the real estate sector was indeed a negative contributor to growth in 2022 in the same year， other sectors such as the green and digital economy more than offset this resulting in a net positive gdp growth in 2022 of three percent indeed china leads the world in the fourth industrial revolution and dominates its associated industries by now just take a look at the following shocking data the dr shan's report which shows how china went from literally zero to hero in several many advanced industries in a very short time including high speed trains， wind and solar power industrial robots and lithium batteries。